I abandoned this blog about nine months ago, leaving behind a hypothetical portfolio. Abandoning a real portfolio for that long would be financial malpractice, but since this was purely hypothetical—for educational and entertainment purposes only—let’s see how badly I screwed up.
So, assuming the full suggested target allocation of each ticker was purchased at the listed limit price in December, here’s a review of what that hypothetical portfolio would have looked like in December 2024:
| ETF | Target Allocation, % | Target Allocation, shares | Limit Buy Price | Position Cost |
| SLV | 3.50% | 12.24 | $28.59 | $350.00 |
| GLD | 5.75% | 2.32 | $248.11 | $575.00 |
| ICLN | 4.25% | 35.27 | $12.05 | $425.00 |
| FAN | 3.00% | 19.39 | $15.47 | $300.00 |
| TAN | 3.75% | 10.66 | $35.19 | $375.00 |
| SOXX | 4.50% | 2.08 | $216.75 | $450.00 |
| XLK | 6.00% | 2.53 | $236.97 | $600.00 |
| IDRV | 4.25% | 14.16 | $30.01 | $425.00 |
| HACK | 2.75% | 3.64 | $75.61 | $275.00 |
| QQQ | 6.00% | 1.16 | $518.43 | $600.00 |
| ROBO | 3.00% | 5.18 | $57.91 | $300.00 |
| BOTZ | 3.50% | 10.48 | $33.39 | $350.00 |
| XHS | 2.25% | 2.39 | $94.33 | $225.00 |
| IEF | 4.50% | 4.81 | $93.54 | $450.00 |
| SHY | 7.25% | 8.91 | $81.34 | $725.00 |
| PAVE | 3.75% | 8.24 | $45.53 | $375.00 |
| VHT | 3.75% | 1.44 | $260.66 | $375.00 |
| XLV | 4.25% | 3.02 | $140.71 | $425.00 |
| USO | 3.50% | 4.82 | $72.59 | $350.00 |
| XLE | 7.25% | 8.10 | $89.49 | $725.00 |
| BBRE | 4.25% | 4.37 | $97.35 | $425.00 |
| “CASH” | 9.00% | 900.00 | $1.00 | $900.00 |
And here’s what that portfolio, untouched, would look like now:
| ETF | Close, October 10, 2025 | Position Cost | Position Value, October 10, 2025 | Gain/(Loss) % | Gain/Loss, US $ |
| SLV | $45.43 | $350.00 | $556.16 | 58.90% | $206.16 |
| GLD | $369.12 | $575.00 | $855.44 | 48.77% | $280.44 |
| ICLN | $15.78 | $425.00 | $556.56 | 30.95% | $131.56 |
| FAN | $19.83 | $300.00 | $384.55 | 28.18% | $84.55 |
| TAN | $44.95 | $375.00 | $479.01 | 27.74% | $104.01 |
| SOXX | $271.99 | $450.00 | $564.69 | 25.49% | $114.69 |
| XLK | $278.39 | $600.00 | $704.87 | 17.48% | $104.87 |
| IDRV | $35.13 | $425.00 | $497.51 | 17.06% | $72.51 |
| HACK | $86.17 | $275.00 | $313.41 | 13.97% | $38.41 |
| QQQ | $589.50 | $600.00 | $682.25 | 13.71% | $82.25 |
| ROBO | $65.31 | $300.00 | $338.34 | 12.78% | $38.34 |
| BOTZ | $35.65 | $350.00 | $373.69 | 6.77% | $23.69 |
| XHS | $99.83 | $225.00 | $238.12 | 5.83% | $13.12 |
| IEF | $96.91 | $450.00 | $466.21 | 3.60% | $16.21 |
| SHY | $82.93 | $725.00 | $739.17 | 1.95% | $14.17 |
| PAVE | $46.42 | $375.00 | $382.33 | 1.95% | $7.33 |
| VHT | $264.73 | $375.00 | $380.86 | 1.56% | $5.86 |
| XLV | $142.11 | $425.00 | $429.23 | 0.99% | $4.23 |
| USO | $69.39 | $350.00 | $334.57 | (4.41%) | -$15.43 |
| XLE | $85.22 | $725.00 | $690.41 | (4.77%) | -$34.59 |
| BBRE | $92.19 | $425.00 | $402.47 | (5.30%) | -$22.53 |
| “CASH” | $1.00 | $900.00 | $900 | 0.00% | $0.00 |
| Total | $10,000.00 | $11,269.83 | 12.70% | $1,269.83 |
Well, at least anyone foolish enough to have actually invested in this portfolio didn’t LOSE any money.
And, I personally would not sneeze at a 12.7% return after just nine months. It’s better than being smacked across the face with a freshly caught trout. Plus, some of these tickers pay dividends, but I’m too lazy to figure out the dividends.
I’ll tell you this though: I do NOT like this approach. It’s too much work. I ended up doing three days doing research, re-jiggering stuff and writing snarky commentary. It was exhausting and probably why I gave up the weekly updates when the new year rolled around.
There has GOT to be a better way to diversify and make money.
So, what now, bad people? First off, if I had this portfolio (the one in the table above), I would immediately place 10% trailing stop orders on every single position. Let the winners run, and cut your losses on the losers.
If you don’t like that, just sell everything on the open. Start fresh.
Starting fresh might not be such a good idea, though. You’ve gotta keep a couple of factors in mind: 1) this portfolio showed a gain of about 14.5% last week, but that shrank significantly over the past week, probably because of the US government shutdown. Here’s the thing, though – the government will re-open, probably. And when that happens, the market will rebound, as it has after past US government shutdowns. Probably. In that case, starting fresh now would not be a good idea. Probably. Confounding the situation, however, is China’s putting export controls on rare earths, and the United States immediately responding with 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. So, who knows? And 2) Don’t ignore the risk that we might be catching our own version of “Dutch Disease” thanks to the current AI hysteria. Nearly all US economic growth in the first half of 2025 came from data center buildouts and AI investment—if you strip out Big Tech spending, GDP was basically flat. AI companies and tech oligarchs are gobbling capital and talent so aggressively that other sectors—manufacturing, healthcare, even agriculture—are getting squeezed. If the AI boom slows or reverses, it could leave the broader economy exposed, just like oil wealth did to Russia. In other words, think twice before you dump everything and go all-in on the shiny objects.
What next? Well, I thought I would create a hypothetical “Kelly Criterion” portfolio, but when I put that into practice, I started seeing some trades run away from me in a good way, so I held on for the ride.
Now, I’m thinking of a “Survivors’ Bias” portfolio, which you can already see in my suggestion to just put a 10% trailing stop on all positions in the hypothetical portfolio above.
The AI Bubble actually gives me the willies right now. So, I would say weeding this still hypothetical portfolio of AI exposure would be a good idea. In addition, I think there is some overlap in coverage between these ETFs. That could lead to di-worsification, where you’re overexposed to some sectors or securities without knowing it, in the name of diversification.
From an AI/Big Tech perspective, this portfolio is a disaster. QQQ, XLK, SOXX, BOTZ, and ROBO make up nearly 24% of holdings, with massive overlap—QQQ and XLK both have NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL as their top three holdings. Time to cut the redundancy: dump XLK (QQQ covers it) and SOXX (QQQ already has semiconductor exposure). Keep it simple, stupid.
The ‘Survivors’ Bias’ portfolio concept is straightforward: cut losers early, ride winners longer. Trailing stops accomplish this automatically. Looking at the results, GLD, SLV, ICLN, FAN, and TAN have posted solid returns and still have macro support. Keep them, plus QQQ for tech exposure.
SHY is made up of 1-3 year treasury bonds, so is just about as liquid as cash, with a little yield. I’d average my cash position into SHY from month to month. If a buying opportunity comes along, you won’t be caught with your pants down if you have SHY.
I’m cleaning up this mess of a portfolio. Next thing to do is run a correlation check to make sure the portfolio as a whole does not swing too wildly—when one thing goes up a lot, the rest should only go up a little or even drop a bit. We also need to check for overlap, like we did for QQQ, XLK and SOXX.
Once that part is done, I’m a fan of keeping my powder dry—all proceeds from dealing with the correlation and overlap checks should be kept in cash and averaged into the SHY position. The lesson I learned from this exercise has been to keep the portfolio manageable and focused with a handful of strong holdings.
The lesson from this exercise: keep portfolios manageable and focused. A handful of strong holdings beats a junk drawer of mediocre ETFs. I’m not reading tea leaves or interpreting goat entrails—just following the old rule: cut losses early, let winners ride.
TL;DR: Portfolio Cleanup Instructions
Abandoned this blog for 9 months. Hypothetical portfolio somehow gained 12.7%. Time to fix this over-diversified mess before the AI bubble pops and the Dutch Disease spreads.
SELL OUTRIGHT (De-AI and De-Overlap):
- XLK (redundant with QQQ)
- SOXX (semiconductor overlap with QQQ)
- BOTZ & ROBO (AI bubble exposure)
- BBRE (underperforming real estate)
- VHT, XHS, XLV (healthcare triple-dip)
- USO & XLE (energy is going nowhere)
KEEP ON 10% TRAILING STOPS:
- GLD & SLV (precious metals riding high)
- ICLN, FAN, TAN (clean energy winners)
- QQQ (one tech ETF to rule them all)
- IDRV (if you must have some AI exposure)
CONSOLIDATE & HOLD:
- Average all cash into SHY monthly (liquid, pays yield)
- IEF & PAVE (steady performers, keep small)
Core principle: Cut losers early, ride winners longer. Keep it simple, keep it focused.
Disclaimer: Don’t Blame Me When This Inevitably Goes Sideways
Look, I’ll level with you, bad people: this hypothetical portfolio stumbled into a 12.7% gain through sheer dumb luck and favorable market conditions. The precious metals boom, the clean energy renaissance, even QQQ’s relentless march upward—none of that was skill, all of it was timing. And the trend.
But here’s the thing about timing: it runs out. Eventually. Maybe tomorrow, maybe next year, but definitely when you least expect it. And the trend? The trend is your friend, until it’s not.
So when—not if, when—this whole strategy implodes spectacularly, when your trailing stops get triggered in a flash crash, when the AI bubble finally pops and takes half your portfolio with it, when China invades Taiwan and precious metals become the only thing worth owning, or when they don’t and everything I’ve suggested turns to digital ash… remember one crucial fact:
IT WON’T BE MY FAULT!
I’m just some guy with a blog who got lucky once and decided to write about it with maximum snark and minimal accountability. You’re the one with actual money on the line. You’re the one who chose to listen to someone who openly admits to abandoning his own hypothetical portfolio for three-quarters of a year out of sheer laziness.
Consider the source, indeed. Now go forth and lose money responsibly.
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